China online ad market to grow 50% in 2008: JPMorgan
China Web 2.0 Review has a write-up summarizing the China section of the new JPMorgan “Nothing but Net” report from Morgan’s Internet analyst Imran Khan and his team, which many of us probably read about yesterday on TechCrunch. The highlight of the China section? Fast growth in the total online ad market (branded ads, email, and pay-per-click) of 50% in 2008, driven by Olympic-related spend, taking the total to $1.441 billion–to 8.2% of total ad spending in China, up from 2007’s 6.7%. Branded ad spend will rise by 38% this year, but the real growth driver will be the pay-per-click search market, which will surge by 82% this year, JPMorgan estimates, to $562 million–with Baidu taking the lion’s share, to no one’s surprise, with 65%-70% of the market.
Total online ad spend growth will slow to 36% in ‘09 by JPMorgan’s reckoning, and to 37% and 33% in the two subsequent years. But that will take the estimated total by 2011 to north of $3.56 billion, or 13.5% of total projected ad spending in that year. These aren’t the most sanguine projections that I’ve seen. There are those who don’t see quite the drop in growth post-Olympics that this forecast posits, and who see the online ad market clipping along at 40-50% growth for the next four years to put the total by 2011 at over $5 billion. Here’s hoping the optimists are right.
A TechCrunch commentor kindly placed this link on the site, where you can download the full report. Note that the link expires on January 6, so hurry.
3 comments thus far
50% is fast but less than the 70% other folks like csfb have been predicting
china’s ad market is still smaller than the online game market and not growing much faster
Posted by bill on January 5, 2008 at 5:22 am
Thanks Kaiser for the pointer. Interesting stuff. The most interesting info for me was the average CTR and CPC numbers (curiously called Price per click). I have been looking for industry benchmarks for ages, and this could fill this gap. But looking at the numbers, they seem to make little sense. Click-trough-rates I have seen globally (and in China) are usually less than 1% (not >20%) and CPC in China varies between USD 0.02 to USD 1. RMB 0.40 seems out of this world. CAn anybody with a hotline to JPMorgan clarify?
Posted by Cognito on January 9, 2008 at 4:24 pm
CTR and CPC Benchmarks for China
Thanks Kaiser for pointing out this article at the China Web 2.0 Review with a summary of the China section of the new JPMorgan “Nothing but Net” report from Morgan’s Internet analyst Imran Khan and his team.Apart from the interesting
Posted by Web Analytics in China on January 9, 2008 at 4:40 pm
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