David Wolf’s take on how the downturn will impact China’s Internet sector
It’s a question weighing rather heavily on the minds of established new media companies and entrepreneurial startups alike, VCs and their limited partners, placement companies, analysts, advertisers, agencies — hell, anyone whose lives and livelihoods are tied to the success of tech companies in China. How well insulated is China from the meltdown and the credit crunch to follow? You may have read about how storied VC Sequoia, one of the best-known of Menlo Park’s Sandhill Road VCs sounded a serious alarm a couple of days ago. That god among venture investors, Michael Moritz, evidently summoned the CEOs all of Sequoia’s portfolio companies — no indication whether that included those invested by Sequoia China like Comsenz or 56.om — and, with other partners, put serious fear into them and commanded them to focus singlemindedly on their bottom lines through cost-cutting and a sell-or-die attitude. (The Valleywag link above is a great read: it includes notes taken by one of the participants in that meeting).
Anyway, my own thoughts on how this will play out in China are still rather conflicted, but this morning I chatted with my friend David Wolf of Wolf Group Asia. David, if you read his excellent blog or have had the pleasure of hearing him speak publicly, is always an insightful and articulate observer of things tech in China. He thinks, as I do, that funding is going to get tight, at least in the short term. VCs — especially non-Chinese venture funds — are going to be parsimonious and will watch every penny. The portfolio companies that endure will, he says, be those focused on cashflow. “The speculative edge will come off the market for a while,” David told me, “but we’ll recover a lot more quickly [in China] once the panic subsides, and companies in China — especially those hat are focused on the domestic market — will look good. But we are in for a bit of a dip.”
This could be a real opportunity for local VCs with Renminbi-denominated funds to really step into the limelight, David suggested. “Entrepreneurs will stop thinking about the DFJs of the world, and will start looking for local money. It’s going to open the door for local venture capital. If I were on Sandhill Road I’d be concerned about this. Chinese funds will get superb pricing and a real boost to their profile.”
And what about the online ad market, which sustains (or, it’s hoped by startups, will eventually sustain) so many of China’s Internet companies? Here, the wise Mr. Wolf is sanguine, too. “There are people on the media side who know that online is the best value in advertising for your money, full stop. China’s problem is that we don’t have a lot of sophistication, both with agencies [surely he was thinking of other agencies, and not Ogilvy!] and on client side. The idea that you’d continue spending on TV and cut back online is ridiculous. They should recognize that the value in Internet marketing, especially outside of the big portals, is tremendous.”
11 comments thus far
From the notes on the Sequoia presentation:
“In a downturn, aggressive PR and Communications strategy is key.”
Hear, hear!
Posted by Will on October 10, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Agree with David on his industry prognosis but I don’t think the lack of sophistication really lies on the agency or client side, it lies on the media owner side. If they continue to sell Cost Per Day advertising in a TV style model then all the benefits of online advertising that we know exist (ie its more measurable and more effective) are impossible to prove.
Posted by scott on October 10, 2008 at 2:47 pm
There are already a *lot* of seriously attractive valued startups in China, with world class inventions.
In a downturn, aggressive non core biz cost cuts and M&As with cheap valued competitors and vertical integration of value chain is major opportunity for long term world domination.
A new niche investment banking is possible in these times - use the crisis for the opportunity: Do M&As of small businesses which are seriously discounted. VCs could do it, but probably do not dare.
So, the next gazillionaires could be made in these days: the ones with vision and guts to buy up cheap equity from companies producing real value or just being world class startups, do M&As with them, consolidate the companies into larger entities and create the next giants.
Posted by Bernino Lind on October 10, 2008 at 3:36 pm
[...] *David Wolf on how the downturn will impact China’s Internet sector Comments (0) [...]
Posted by China Notebook on October 11, 2008 at 9:38 pm
many start-upers around me can feel the pressure due to the finance meltdown. the ones which have already had lucrative business model still can get hands from VCs. otherwise will be easily turned down.
Posted by Tao on October 12, 2008 at 2:22 pm
There is a funding gap in China. Angels can fund a company up to US$2M, then there is a gap between 2-4M, when the VCs step in. That gap is when the startups should be getting some revenue, and building a value proposition and story for their company. My guess is that it will be very tough for the companies which are in the 2-4M gap if they aren’t able to show revenue of some kind. This will be very challenging, but at the same time, the ones who succeed and survive will be very interesting.
My gut tells me that more and more of the successful companies will be based outside Shanghai and Beijing, and will be in the Tier 2 cities, as I have mentioned in my blog. I expect more in the way of productivity apps than entertainment, as has been the case up until now. Shanghai and Beijing are the modern treaty ports of China, and there is too much staff turnover and high staffing costs. They are removed from China just as LA and NY are different from the rest of the US.
It’s very obvious that the Chinese govt. is going to put emphasis on developing the interior and making the rich/poor gap smaller between the eastern coast and the interior. I’m getting ready for the 3rd generation of local Chinese Internet entrepreneurs.
Posted by Paul Denlinger on October 13, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Paul, I see the same funding gap, but I also believe there is substantial RMB capital sitting on the sidelines. As others have pointed out, China Web 2.0 valuations are fairly high - probably too rich for locals - and this is being driven by offshore venture capital. Remove the OVCs, wait 9-15 months, and valuations are going to reset. Methinks this will trigger creation/entry of a class of Chinese VCs willing to invest at the lower valuations, closing the funding gap.
Posted by David Wolf on October 13, 2008 at 3:41 pm
I just returned from two weeks in Silicon Valley, talking with a number of VCs and other classes of investors about their views on China investments in the current market context. I came away very encouraged that if anything, foreign capital will flow even more strongly to China over the course of the coming economic contraction in the Western world. Whether it continues to flow to Web 2.0 companies supported by ad-only models is another matter, and I agree with comments in this area.
I find it hard to draw a meaningful distinction between ‘foreign’ funds and Rmb funds, as many Rmb funds are in fact managed by foreign managers with foreign LPs. The distinction is really just one of currency and expected exit destination not foreign versus domestic management or LP source. I do agree that we will see the number and quantity of Rmb funds increase signficantly, as future China exits will likely be more frequently domestic exits, obviating the need for offshore vehicles and dollar denominated funds. This is a trend that was already underway and now will likely accelerate. However, foreign capital will not be at a disadvantage here nor does the increase in Rmb funds mean that there is less foreign capital involved.
Venture capital, particularly early stage venture capital, is not statistically correlated to the larger macro-markets. In China, new fundraising has accelerated through the third-quarter 2008. With an average investing cycle of 5 years, there is an enormous ammount of capital that has yet to be invested with return expectations that are 7 to 12 years in the future.
With growth prospects in US and Europe negative to flat for at least the next 3 - 5 years, China and other areas of Asia and the developing world represent both the shorter term and the longer term growth story globally. As a consequence, we should expect capital formation to continue in China, driven from all sources, domestic and international. This was confirmed during my recent trip up Sand Hill Road and further afield in the Bay Area.
In the Web 2.0 area, the fact of the matter is China’s online advertising industry has yet to reach maturity. Now that the more mature online advertising industry in the US is crashing, the hope that China’s industry will reach maturity and support all the aspiring companies with ad driven models is now more distant than ever.
Given all of this, whether you are in the US or in China, if your business plan is ad-driven, do not expect to find venture capital. However, if you have a solid business model, there is and will continue to be capital available in China (both dollar- and Rmb-denominated and Rmb) to start up and grow your business.
Posted by Ortiz on October 13, 2008 at 9:04 pm
[...] recognition, and the very same can be said for much of the world’s economy, so there’s a post about how the downturn will impact China’s Internet sector. Kaiser spoke with David Wolf of Wolf Group Asia. Funding is expected to get tight, but at the same [...]
Posted by Weekly Roundup: Chinese Web 2.0 Rhetoric (October 14, 2008) on October 14, 2008 at 2:11 pm
There is definitely a huge climate change here in the Valley over the last 3 weeks. Likely effects:
1. Only the best Angel/Seed deals get done at 25-30% discount to valuations handed out 12 months ago. Many hot entrepreneurs will just choose to take a note with warrants to defer pricing the deal.
2. Series A and B much more difficult. You need to prove more market traction and revenue. No urgency to fund.
3. Deal size goes up just as valuations go down. Everyone wants more cash in the deal.
4. Later stage will be relatively less affected. But expectations are that IPO and acquisition windows could be closed for some time.
5. Layoffs are coming. Expect lots of people to get freed up, especially sales, marketing, and admin functions. Engineers still in tight demand.
All of this is for the Valley. Not sure if this matches what will happen in VC backed startups in China. Keep posting on this topic.
Thanks!
Twitter: @elliottng
Posted by Elliott Ng on October 14, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Excellent post. Very helpful to get this type of read and detail from folks on the ground there. Good job KK and DW.
Posted by Chris Carr on October 15, 2008 at 5:13 am
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